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Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview and Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

  • Date: April 20, 2024
  • Location: PNC Park
  • Starting pitchers:
    • Kutter Crawford-Red Sox
    • Mitch Keller – Pirates
  • Running line: Red Sox 1.5 -195, Pirates -1.5 165
  • Moneyline: Red Sox 100, Pirates -120
  • Total (top/bottom):8 -105

Odds for Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Implied profit%:

  • Boston Red Sox – 48%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates – 52%

Projected profit%:

  • Boston Red Sox – 0%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates – 0%

Game preview and prediction Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates

On April 20, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Boston Red Sox at PNC Park. The Pirates will be the home team for this interleague game. Both teams have started the season decently, with the Pirates having an 11-9 record and the Red Sox trailing at 11-10.

The Pirates are expected to start right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller, who is performing below average according to our Advanced Power Rankings. Keller has started four games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 4.50. However, his xFIP of 3.87 suggests he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in the future. Keller is expected to pitch approximately 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.2.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, will send right-handed pitcher Kutter Crawford to the mound. Crawford has performed well this season and is the 56th best starting pitcher in the MLB according to our Power Rankings. In his four starts, Crawford has an impressive 0.42 ERA. However, his 3.74 xFIP suggests he may have gotten lucky and could regress in future outings. Crawford is expected to pitch approximately 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters.

In terms of offense, the Pirates rank 14th in the MLB, while the Red Sox rank 23rd. However, the Red Sox have the third-best batting average in the league, which shows their hitting prowess. The Pirates’ best hitter over the past seven games has been Alika Williams, while the Red Sox have seen strong performances from Connor Wong over that same span.

With a game total of 8.0 runs, the betting markets are expecting a close game. The Pirates are favored with a moneyline of -120, giving them an implied win probability of 52%, while the Red Sox have a moneyline of +100 and an implied win probability of 48%.

As the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT The Pirates’ bullpen ranks 7th in the MLB, while the Red Sox’ bullpen ranks 16th.

Both teams will look to secure a win in this second match of the series. Since the Pirates have a slight edge in expected win probability, it promises to be an exciting game at PNC Park.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox infield defense is shaping up as the worst of any team in action today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Rob Refsnyder has batted primarily in the back half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is expected to bat third in the batting order in today’s game.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more at-bats he gets and the more chances he gets to hit the Over for each market. A player who ranks higher in the order than he normally does can provide additional value opportunities, as the market may be based on him ranking lower.

Compared to their overall projected velocity of .317, the .306 wOBA of the Boston Red Sox’ leading projection system (THE BAT

  • Betting lines are often based on the team’s season quality. However, if today’s lineup is watered down, there could be value if markets don’t factor in the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to the average starter, Mitch Keller has gotten a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, amounting to 6.3 adjusted pitches per start.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to dive deeper into games and record more outs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 7th best among all teams in the majors.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen secretly creates a tougher matchup for the opponent and stifles a game’s runs.

Game trends

Red Sox vs. Pirates Prediction: Red Sox 0 – Pirates 0

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