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NBA Playoffs: Best Bets and Analysis for Saturday, April 20

Best NBA Playoffs Bets for Saturday April 20

Welcome to my daily column with the best NBA betting odds for the NBA Playoffs! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA Playoff content on a daily basis, so keep an eye on Zach Cohen who is doing a great job of disrupting the competition as well!

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Best NBA Playoffs Bets

Record: 114-113-3 | Units: -7.7 | ROI: -3.1%

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks (-1.5, 203.5)

The market is all over New York in Game 1 of their series with Philadelphia. DraftKings opened Knicks -1.5 and has risen to -3 as of this morning, and several outlets are as high as 3.5, which is considered the consensus number. There is some doubt that Joel Embiid is fully healthy after seeing him in the play-in game with Miami. While I agree with the market, the line has gone too far at this point. Let’s try a player prop tonight instead.

New York has enough depth under center that you could feel comfortable starting this series defending Embiid with Isaiah Hartenstein or Mitchell Robinson. They also have a custom defenseman for Tyrese Maxey in OG Anunoby, and I expect we’ll see a lot of possessions with Anunoby as the 76ers’ lead point guard. Maxey will try to put Jalen Brunson on him, but Anunoby is good enough to navigate those screens and maintain his defensive position against Maxey.

Maxey probably won’t be taken out by Anunoby here, but Anunoby is an elite defender with the size and athleticism to make the night difficult for his opponent. Combine that with a low match total and a potentially painful pace, and I think Maxey is worth betting under his points total tonight.

Best bet: Tyrese Maxey UN 22.5 PTS (-118)

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves (-1.5, 213.5)

Phoenix is ​​another team that the market is in love with, and one look at the regular season series would tell you why. The Suns were 3-0 against SU and ATS against the Timberwolves in the three games they played this season. Phoenix averaged 123.7 points per 100 possessions in the regular season series and posted a net rating of +15.7. It was no doubt a tough stretch for the Timberwolves, but a case can be made that they are underrated here.

First and foremost, Minnesota plays here at home. Home field in the postseason is worth much more than in the regular season. Home teams outscored their opponents by an average of 2.3 points per 100 possessions in non-trash time. In the postseason the year before, net non-garbage time increased from +2.7 to +4.3 per 100 possessions. The Timberwolves were one of the stronger home teams in the league this season with a SU record of 30-11 and a net rating of +9.3 in non-trash time. They deserve a little more respect because they only play at home.

Bettors should also be careful about taking too much of the regular season series. In two of the wins, the Suns had insane shooting performances, shooting over 54% from beyond the arc. In one of those games, they shot 51 of 85 (60.0%) from the floor! This is unlikely to repeat on the road against the best defense in the league. Two of the three games also took place in Phoenix.

This is just a number play. Teams deserve more respect on their home court in the postseason. The current numbers could indicate that Phoenix could be a six-point favorite at home if the series switches locations. That doesn’t fit the way I judge these teams, so I’m going with the home team this afternoon.

Best bet: Timberwolves (-1)

Best NBA Playoffs Bets

Tyrese Maxey VN 22.5 PTS

Timberwolves (-1)